Bonik Barta graph In order to ensure food security for a growing population, the
government has set a target to double the rice productivity by 2030 as compared
to 2015. Despite taking different initiatives, the production cannot be
enhanced as expected. Even worse, the growth rate of rice has now gone down
below the annual rate of population increase. According to information detailed
in ‘Sample Vital Statistics – 2023’ compiled by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics
(BBS), the rate of natural increase (RNI) of population in the country in 2023
was 1.33 percent. This was 1.4 percent in 2022. As per the census, the average
population growth rate was 1.12 percent. But, analyzing the data of Agriculture
Ministry, it was found that growth of rice production in last three fiscal
years was below 1 percent.
For the slow pace of growth in rice production, experts put
the blame on reduction of cultivable land and non-inclusion of new workforce in
the agriculture sector. They are of the opinion that structural changes are
taking place rapidly in the agriculture sector. Arable land is declining.
People are leaning to other crops due to production cost increase and absence
of the right price of paddy. And, the pace of automation in agriculture is being
slowed down owing to the instability with respect to exchange rate of dollar.
Due to this volatility, people are not being able to take the advantage of the
automation. Under such a situation, many are giving up on agriculture.
The country produced 38.6 million tons of rice in 2020-21
fiscal year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. Same amount of rice was
produced in the previous fiscal. That means the growth rate was zero. In
2021-22 fiscal, the rice production was 38.9 million tons, an increase of 0.78
percent. In 2022-23 fiscal, the rice production went up by only 0.26 percent to
39 million tons. The production each year was below target.
It will not be possible to achieve expected rice production
without providing subsidy and incentives alongside automation of agriculture, believes
agricultural economist Dr Jahangir Alam Khan. “The import cost of machineries
has gone up due to high price of dollar. As a result, the pace of automation is
slow. It should be made faster. The production cost of paddy is on the rise. So
is the irrigation cost. About 65 percent farmers still depend on petrol for
irrigation. So, subsidy will have to go up here,” he told Bonik Barta.
Bangladesh Agricultural University Emeritus Professor Dr MA
Sattar Mandal feels that the target of production of rice cannot be achieved
due to reduction of farmland and disinterest in agriculture among the youths in
the country. He even cast doubt about doubling the production by 2030.
Talking to Banik Barta on Thursday, he said, “The arable land
in the country is decrease every year at the rate of 0.5 percent. The number of
farmers is declining due to lack of interests of the youths. As a result,
achieving the target to double the rice production has become challenging. However,
there are new technologies in the sector along with new varieties. Young entrepreneurs
are getting engaged in fishing and other crops. Keeping export in mind, they
are farming potato, maize, wheat, tomato and other crops. Sesame or mustard are
cultivated instead of green crops. Does it mean that we will import rice exporting
our cash crops? Maybe, young people will enter commercial agriculture. But,
they will not cultivate paddy. Marginal farmers will somehow survive to feed
themselves. As a result, the production of rice will not increase to meet the
target.”
The devaluation of taka against dollar has made the agricultural
automation even more expensive. According to people concerned, it possible to
reduce the production cost to a significant extent alongside increasing the
productivity through the automation. But, at present, the price of agricultural
machineries has gone up due to increased import cost of appliances and spare
parts. As a result, it is difficult for the farmers to get hold of these
machineries even if they want to.
ACI Agribusiness President Dr FH Ansarey believes that the
price hike of agricultural machineries is making farmers uninterested in
automation. “Due to increased exchange rate of dollar, the price of a single
harvesting machine has risen to Tk 4.2 million. Even after subsidy, it is
extremely difficult for a farmer to manage Tk 2 million. Using machine, it
costs Tk 18-20 to produce a kilogram of paddy while it costs Tk 30 in
conventional method. Farmers will require 80 percent subsidy if the production
cost is to be reduced through automation. At this, use of machineries will
increase and production cost will go down,” he told Bonik Barta.
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) is working on
doubling the production of paddy by 2030. On the occasion of Mujib Centenary
Year, the organization formulated a strategic paper titled ‘Doubling Rice
Productivity’. According to the paper, it is possible to produce 46.9 million
tons by 2030 after doubling the productivity.
BRRI Director General Dr M Shahjahan Kabir claims that only rice
production is in a comfortable position. “Production of potato and other crops
went down. But, we are heading towards our target. We hope that the
productivity will be doubled before 2030,” he told Bonik Barta.
When contacted, former State Minister for Planning Dr Shamsul Alam, also
an agricultural economist, told Bonik Barta, “If farming of paddy cannot be
profitable, it will be difficult to hold on to the current productivity. Price
of agricultural materials will have to be slashed. Automation should be
enhanced. High-quality seeds should be invented.”
