Bonikbarta Exclusive

For years, questions have swirled around the government’s statistics. Despite consistent economic growth, the nation struggled to create sufficient employment, casting doubt on key economic indicators. This situation worsened when A H M Mustafa Kamal took over as Planning Minister in 2014, leading to statistical discrepancies. A syndicate of five to six individuals became involved in manipulating critical data, including inflation rates. Allegations surfaced that various economic indicators were reported more positive than in reality, and statistical differences with international organizations grew. The World Bank reported that between 2015 and 2019, growth was exaggerated by 3.5 percent. Mustafa Kamal, who is more known as Lotus Kamal, is widely believed to be the mastermind behind these fabricated statistics.

A H M Mustafa Kamal topped the merit list in the Chartered Accountancy exams across Pakistan in 1970. Before that, he earned a bachelor’s degree in commerce in 1967 and a master’s degree in accounting in 1968, both from the University of Dhaka. He also holds a law degree. Kamal was nicknamed “Lotus” during his academic career in recognition of his brilliance. However, many believe that his talents were not used for good. After Sheikh Hasina’s re-election in 2018, Kamal was rewarded with the role of Finance Minister in 2019 for his role in creating false statistics.

Experts assert, “The country’s statistics became entangled in political economy, manipulated from the highest levels. As a result, growth was consistently reported in line with the five-year plans, although it did not align with aggregate data. Methodological changes were made for political reasons, leading to the dissemination of distorted statistics. The country’s economy has suffered due to policy decisions based on these erroneous figures.”

The World Bank publishes scores based on statistical performance across various countries, considering 25 indicators. In 2014, Bangladesh scored 80 out of 100 in the Statistical Capacity Indicator. However, this score steadily declined, dropping sharply to 62 in 2018 and further to 60 in 2020, compared to South Asia’s average score of 69. Bangladesh experienced the most significant decline in methodological indicators, plummeting from 70 in 2014 to 30 in 2020.

The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), under the Ministry of Planning, is responsible for producing and publishing all government statistics. After taking office, Chartered Accountant A H M Mustafa Kamal established his exclusive control over the BBS. He also took direct control of the regular publication of monthly inflation data by the organization. Later, personnel changes were made in the crucial CPI branch of the BBS, with Kamal’s favored individuals appointed to key positions. It is alleged that Kamal conducted all his activities through Masud Rana Chowdhury, a special economic cadre aide who oversaw the minister’s operations.

Speaking with current and former officials of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) reveals a troubling history spanning the past decade and a half, where open discourse was essentially stifled. If anyone raised objections or attempted to discuss discrepancies in the statistics, they were promptly transferred to remote or less significant branches. They sometimes even faced departmental cases on dubious grounds. The manipulation of data extended from various BBS branches up to the offices of the Deputy Director General, Director General, and even the Secretary. In some instances, inflation data files were sent to the Prime Minister for approval via the minister, despite regulations dictating that the Director General is responsible for releasing all BBS data.

The disparities between the data published by the BBS and international organizations such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) continued to widen. In 2018, Mustafa Kamal, then serving as Planning Minister, found himself at odds with the World Bank over growth figures. The country’s growth target for the 2017-18 fiscal year was set at 7.4 percent, but Kamal claimed in April of that year that the growth would exceed the target, reaching 7.65 percent. On the other hand, the World Bank’s forecast was much more conservative, predicting a growth rate of no more than 6.65 percent. The ADB also expressed disagreements with the government’s figures.

This discrepancy led the government to hold a press conference challenging the World Bank’s data. During the conference, Mustafa Kamal asserted, “Our data is correct.” He also issued an ultimatum to the World Bank, demanding that they sit down with the BBS to revise the data. Kamal even personally called World Bank representatives, pressuring them to correct the data promptly.

Dr. Zahid Hussain, who was the World Bank’s lead economist in Dhaka at the time, told Bonik Barta, “At that time, the government’s growth figures didn’t add up. We explained this using various models, but Minister Mustafa Kamal became infuriated and called the World Bank’s Country Director, insisting that the BBS data was accurate. During the 2015-19 period, the government’s growth figures were consistently off by about 3.5 percent, which was inexplicable. However, to avoid further damaging the relationship, we didn’t directly confront the issue then. In 2022, though, we did hint at it in one of our reports.”

Reflecting on the consequences of data misrepresentation, the economist added, “It’s like driving a car blindfolded. Data provides insight into reality. It dictates how you should govern the country. But if you base your policies on inaccurate data, you’re bound to hit a roadblock at some point, as we’re witnessing now. Moreover, contamination has been detected in all statistics, from revenue to exports.”

In its 2022 report titled ‘Bangladesh - Country Economic Memorandum: Change of Fabric’, the World Bank noted that the discrepancy in Bangladesh's growth figures began to widen in 2010, escalating to 3.7 percent during the 2015-19 period, a gap deemed inexplicable by the international financial institution.

Abdul Kadir Miah, a director at the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), alleged that during the tenure of AHM Mustafa Kamal, the BBS was controlled by a syndicate group. “A syndicate of five to six individuals, led by Joint Secretary Dr. Dipankar Roy of the Department of Statistics and Information Management, effectively ran the BBS,” he told Bonik Barta. “This circle managed to retain Dr. Roy at BBS, even after several transfer orders. Anyone who questioned their actions was tagged with various political labels. A deputy director in charge of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) branch was labeled and sent to a training college. Mustafa Kamal’s associates were then appointed to key positions. Among them, Mahmudul Haque was appointed as the deputy director of BBS. He became close to Kamal through Masud Rana, another individual linked to the syndicate. Publicly, he was involved in Awami League politics. Masud Rana later secured an overseas posting through the minister and was even appointed as a director of a state-owned bank.”

Abdul Kadir Miah, who was subjected to departmental proceedings without an office assignment, believes his fate was sealed by his protests against the various injustices he witnessed. Recently, in an effort to avoid further false harassment, Miah sent a legal notice to the Secretary of Statistics. On August 20, he was finally released from the departmental proceedings.

Bonik Barta also spoke with the transferred deputy director who had worked at the CPI branch for eight years. Preferring to remain anonymous, the official said, “I was tagged in various ways, but the transfer order turned out to be beneficial. At the training college, I received a scholarship for overseas training. If someone claims this crucial desk by presenting themselves as an Awami League member, I have nothing to say. It was an attractive desk, so perhaps someone else wanted it. I left BBS after the transfer order. Although inflation data used to be published directly by BBS before, Mustafa Kamal later took control of it.”

Officials involved in processing inflation data explained, “The inflation basket now includes 749 items, such as wardrobes, laptops, and chairs, which are rarely purchased more than once in a lifetime. Previously, the basket contained 420 items. As a result, despite rising prices of essential goods, the impact on inflation figures remains minimal. If inflation were calculated based on essential goods alone, the rate would be several times higher than the current figure.”

Abul Kalam Azad, a former director of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), has shed light on the data engineering practices within the agency, revealing instances where inflation rates were deliberately kept below double digits. “A former adviser once instructed me to reduce the Consumer Price Index (CPI),” he told Bonik Barta. “Later, a couple of ministers did the same. Inflation never officially hit double digits; it would always be recorded at something like 9.67 or 9.92 percent. Why does it never exceed 10 percent? There is engineering in the way survey questionnaires are designed. Questions are structured to elicit the desired outcomes. For example, a question might ask, ‘Does your bathroom have a flush?’ A ‘yes’ response would automatically be interpreted as having a sanitary latrine, even though the presence of a flush does not necessarily indicate that. This is how data is engineered during analysis.”

Azad further suggested that large-scale census data should be scrutinized. “We should examine how economic and agricultural censuses are conducted in the country. There’s a lot that goes on behind the scenes. There’s a mechanism in place, but it doesn’t always need to reach the minister’s desk. Many decisions are made at the director general or deputy director general level, and sometimes they stop at these firewalls. With dedicated government officials like Shahnaz Arefin as secretary, why should everything need to go up to the minister? She received rapid promotions,” he said.

Recalling an incident where he prevented data distortion, Azad mentioned, “Once, Dipongkar Roy manipulated data forecasts for Mustafa Kamal. Statistics on growth and industrial output were exaggerated. I warned him that presenting such information would damage his reputation. Later, the minister refrained from presenting that data.”

Abul Kalam Azad, who joined BBS at the age of 27, served for 32 years and oversaw the retirement of hundreds of officers, but he himself received no farewell ceremony. He attributes this to his outspoken nature. This also cost him several promotions, particularly during Mustafa Kamal’s tenure. Toward the end of his career, he was transferred to a training college. Out of frustration, he never returned to the BBS building after his retirement.

During Lotus Kamal’s tenure, many were transferred outside Dhaka for various reasons. Sajal Haidar was a statistics officer in the National Accounting Wing. He was transferred to Bandarban one morning despite his wife being eight months pregnant. “I had just returned to Dhaka after two years of fieldwork as a statistics officer. But one morning, I was suddenly released and sent to Bandarban.” Haidar said.  His colleagues’ efforts, including the wing director, to stop the transfer failed. To this day, he does not know why he was transferred so abruptly while holding a junior post. He added, “It was a very difficult time for me. My child was due in just two months, and it was mentally exhausting.”

In 2022, statistics expert Zia Hasan published a book titled “The Mirage of Development: A Decade of Unspoken Economic History”, which critically examines the accuracy of government statistics. The book, which garnered significant attention, exposes the flaws in official data through methodical analysis. In an interview with Bonik Barta, Hasan stated, “There has been a persistent trend at the highest levels to present continuous economic growth. The country’s statistics became entangled with political economics. As a result, despite aligning growth figures with five-year plans, they didn’t match the macroeconomic data. Typically, when growth increases, employment should also rise. However, while industrial growth was reported, employment growth was shown in agriculture instead. If employment wasn’t increasing, industrial mechanization should have been widespread, but that wasn’t the case.”

Hasan further emphasized that accurate statistics could have aided the Sheikh Hasina government in formulating effective policies. “Due to erroneous data, it was impossible to implement proper policies regarding interest rates and money circulation,” he added.

Following a change in government spurred by a student-led mass uprising, protests erupted at the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), demanding an end to corruption and syndicate practices. Demonstrators even detained a secretary, calling for action against those who had benefited unjustly. BBS officials accused the institution’s director-general and deputy directors, who were appointed from other cadres, of being responsible for data manipulation. Consequently, they demanded that these positions be filled from within the statistics cadre. The growing unrest also led to a reshuffling within the Consumer Price Index (CPI) division, resulting in the removal of Mohiuddin Ahmed from his duties. Commenting on the situation to Bonik Barta, Mohiuddin Ahmed said, “This has nothing to do with the change in government.” He also dismissed allegations of political syndication linked to the Awami League, saying, “Malicious individuals are spreading false and fabricated accusations against me.”

Riti Ibrahim, a former secretary of the statistics department, acknowledged that there were indeed questionable practices within government statistics. Speaking to Bonik Barta, she stated, “In many cases, instead of using data collected from the field, figures were dictated from higher authorities. Particularly from the upper echelons. Therefore, it is imperative to appoint professionals from the statistics field, rather than administrative cadres, to key positions such as director-general. The BBS is currently being run without statisticians. This is why an independent commission led by statisticians should oversee the organization.”

When approached for comment, Masud Rana Chowdhury, who serves as an additional secretary, addressed the allegations with Bonik Barta. He remarked, “I was attached to the minister’s office at that time. Occasionally, I would review BBS files. Sometimes at the minister’s request, I would call BBS officials to inquire about certain matters. That’s why my name is being mentioned. I was selected through an exam to serve as a commercial counselor in South Korea. But there’s a misconception that this appointment was influenced by the minister, which is upsetting.” Chowdhury denied any claims of controlling the BBS.

Joint secretary of the statistics department, Dipankar Roy, dismissed accusations of syndicate involvement. He told Bonik Barta, “Even though I have been posted elsewhere, the secretary requested that I stay here due to work requirements. That's why I’ve been here for six or seven years.”

When contacted regarding the overall allegations, senior secretary of the statistics department, Dr. Shahnaz Arefin, declined to comment on matters related to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). She expressed frustration at being called on a holiday and advised reaching out to the director general of BBS instead. Attempts to contact former planning minister A H M Mustafa Kamal for a statement were unsuccessful, as his phone was found switched off. There are rumors that he left the country following the change in government after a student-led mass uprising.

In light of the current economic situation, the government is planning to issue a white paper, with economist Dr. Debapriya Bhattacharya expected to lead the initiative. When asked by Bonik Barta whether the review of government statistics would be included in the white paper, Dr. Bhattacharya stated, “Once the committee is formed, we will decide on the specifics. However, verifying the accuracy of data is crucial. In the past, politically motivated methodological changes have led to distorted statistics. We have proposed forming a separate data commission to address these issues, ensuring that GDP calculations are accurate. Not only BBS, but also statistics from ERD and banks will be reviewed. Additionally, work will begin on important data that we currently lack, such as employment and wage statistics.”