Bonikbarta Exclusive

In November 1983, Bangladesh expelled 18 diplomats, accusing the Soviet intelligence agency of misconduct. However, this was not the first instance of expelling diplomats. Earlier, during Ziaur Rahman’s regime, four Soviet diplomats were expelled, escalating diplomatic tensions between the two nations to their peak. This strain in relations started to ease primarily after the Awami League came to power in 1996. Nevertheless, the change in government led to further deterioration in bilateral relations. However, over the last decade and a half, the Sheikh Hasina-led government has significantly elevated the ties between Bangladesh and Russia through diplomatic efforts. Now, the question arises whether Russia can finally break away from the Awami League’s ties.

From the perspective of diplomatic analysts, the relationship between Russia and Bangladesh has always been shaped by political power dynamics. When the Awami League was in power, Russian investments saw a noticeable jump. A review of bilateral trade in recent years supports this trend. A key example of Russian investment under the Awami League’s rule is the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant. Most Russian investments in post-independence Bangladesh have been made during Sheikh Hasina’s tenure.

The Economic Relations Division’s (ERD) annual report reveals that since independence, Russia has pledged a total of $12.28 billion in loans to Bangladesh. Of this, $11.38 billion was pledged to construct the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant alone.

Commenting on this, former diplomat Humayun Kabir told Bonik Barta, “We share a historic relationship with Russia, dating back to the Liberation War. While it’s true that our relations with Russia have remained favorable under the Awami League government, our ties are still relatively stable. We maintain relations with Russia as necessary. In the 1970s, we built our power plants in Ghorashal with Russian support because we had no other alternative sources. Now, the nuclear plant is also being constructed with Russian assistance. During the Awami League’s term in 1996, we purchased several MiG-29 fighter jets. How effectively those planes were used remains uncertain, but there were questions about the necessity and quality of that deal. Similar concerns surround the Rooppur project today. When it comes to relations with Russia, we must focus on necessity and mutual interests. Beyond that, if other factors come into play, they tend to raise questions. I don’t foresee any hostility in our relations with Russia. However, several questions are being raised. It is to be seen how both countries address these.”

After Bangladesh’s independence, during Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s rule, Russia provided assistance to Bangladesh’s energy sector. However, there was no significant bilateral trade between the two countries until 1996. When Sheikh Hasina’s government came to power in 1996, Bangladesh purchased eight MiG-29 fighter jets from Russia for $129 million. When the BNP government assumed power, they initiated corruption investigations against the Sheikh Hasina administration over the deal. In 2001, the Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) filed a case. Relations between the two countries took a positive turn again in 2009 when the Awami League returned to power.

Bilateral trade between Russia and Bangladesh fluctuated between $960 million and $1.27 billion. Recent figures indicate a balance between imports and exports. According to the Bangladesh Bank, the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), and the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), bilateral trade between Bangladesh and Russia amounted to $957 million in FY 2022-23. This included $497 million in imports from Russia and $460 million in exports to Russia. In FY 2021-22, bilateral trade reached $1.118 billion, with $480 million in imports from Russia and $638 million in exports from Bangladesh.

Bilateral trade stood at $1.147 billion in the 2020-21 fiscal year (FY), $1.269 billion in FY 2019-20, and $1.198 billion in FY 2018-19.

Regarding bilateral trade agreements, Russia provided the highest loan assistance to finance Bangladesh’s energy sector. Russia financed the 2,400 MW nuclear power plant in Rooppur, with a total project cost of $12.65 billion. Bangladesh and Russia signed a loan agreement of $11.38 billion (Russian loans finance 90 percent of the project). As of September this year, Bangladesh had received $7.8 billion from Russia, representing 64 percent of the total loan. Additionally, Russia supplies most of the technology and imports for this project. The loan utilization period will end on December 31 of this year.

Aside from trade, Russia has supported the Awami League in the past three contested elections. Additionally, in the Russian presidential elections, Sheikh Hasina’s government sent Bangladesh’s Chief Election Commissioner to observe the process. In March of this year, former Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Kazi Habibul Awal traveled to Russia for an eight-day visit.

Regarding the evolving relationship between Bangladesh and Russia, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir told Bonik Barta, “The relationship between two countries depends on mutual understanding, respect, and interests. Earlier, we did not have any major agreements with Russia. However, since the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant is nearing completion, there are obvious shared interests between the two nations. It must be managed by safeguarding our own interests. We believe that it is not wise to maintain hostile relations with any country. Working in the best interests of the nation is the way forward.”

Russia supported Bangladesh during the Liberation War, speaking in favor of the country at UN Security Council sessions. When the United States of America attempted to deploy the Seventh Fleet, Russia countered by sending its naval fleet. After independence, Russia aided Bangladesh in reconstruction, notably assisting in removing mines from the Bay of Bengal that year. In the 1970s, Russia’s construction of power plants, such as those in Siddhirganj and Ghorashal, significantly contributed to the country’s infrastructure. However, after the assassination of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Russia’s significant support for Bangladesh waned.

In 1980, during Ziaur Rahman’s presidency, Bangladesh expelled four Soviet diplomats. Bangladeshi intelligence agency accused them of bringing sophisticated communication devices from the Soviet Union to facilitate contact with Soviet spies in Bangladesh. Two more Soviet diplomats were expelled two months after Ziaur Rahman’s assassination, again based on intelligence agency reports. In 1983, the largest expulsion occurred, with 18 Soviet diplomats being asked to leave the country.

General Hussain Muhammad Ershad’s regime did not witness significant improvements in relations with Russia, as Bangladesh continued to receive financial investments and assistance primarily from Western nations.

In this context, Jatiya Party Chairman Golam Mohammad (GM) Quader told Bonik Barta, “There has been no significant deterioration in Bangladesh’s relations with Russia until now. Leadership changes sometimes lead to issues. However, during my tenure as a minister, I saw Russia showing interest in trade with us, especially in garments and other sectors. However, due to banking issues, such trade could not proceed as planned. They were unable to receive payments properly when goods were exported from Bangladesh. Under Sheikh Hasina’s government, Russia provided loans for the country’s largest mega projects. Although there have been concerns over the safety and high costs of some of these projects, particularly the nuclear power plant, there has been no indication of any major rift between the interim government and Russia so far. I remain hopeful that relations will not deteriorate in the future.”

Tensions have recently arisen over Bangladesh’s energy sector relationship with Russia, centered on the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant loan. Bangladesh has requested an extension to repay the principal, but Russia has not responded favorably. Instead, it has sought to receive interest payments in Chinese currency. This dispute over loan repayments has been ongoing for more than two years, but complications have intensified following the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government. The interim government has initiated a review of various agreements related to the power sector, including the Rooppur project. Consequently, there are concerns that Bangladesh may face further strain in its dealings with Russia.

Bilateral trade between the two countries expanded significantly with the construction of the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant. After Sheikh Hasina took power in 2009, a proposal for constructing the plant was passed in the National Parliament in 2010. In November 2011, an intergovernmental agreement was signed with Russia to construct the nuclear power plant. During the last decade and a half under Sheikh Hasina’s rule, the plant secured international approvals, overcame diplomatic pressures from neighboring countries, and established a joint coordination committee, all supported by Russian loans. Bangladesh received substantial financial aid from Russia, which was instrumental in drafting the plant’s design, importing machinery, providing technical assistance, and training personnel, among other aspects. The Sheikh Hasina government further solidified diplomatic relations with Russia by seeking assistance for a second nuclear power plant last year, to which Russia gave its assurances.

Dr. Shahab Enam Khan, professor of International Relations at Jahangirnagar University, told Bonik Barta, “Bangladesh’s relations with Russia have largely been leader-centric. However, this does not mean that our relations are narrow in scope. Bangladeshi students study there, and we maintain military ties with Russia. The relationship has also expanded in the trade sector, especially in diesel and fuel supply. However, our debt burden with Russia has increased due to the Rooppur Power Plant. If the power plant is shut down, the investment made so far will be wasted. The government should take the necessary steps to keep it operational. I do not foresee any major disruptions or significant fluctuations in Bangladesh’s relations with Russia, though the scope of the relationship may not expand much beyond the current levels.”

Following the student-people uprising on August 5, Sheikh Hasina was ousted and left the country. Concerns regarding Bangladesh’s relationship with Russia are rising again. However, Russia’s Ambassador to Bangladesh, Alexander Mantytskiy, reassured that Russia would continue to stand by Bangladesh in the international arena. On August 27, he met with Dr. Muhammad Yunus in Dhaka for a courtesy visit, congratulating him on his appointment as the head of the interim government. Mantytskiy also reiterated Russia’s commitment to bilateral cooperation in various sectors, particularly energy, agriculture, and education.