On Friday (October 4), loose flour was sold at BDT 45 per
kilogram in the Kitchen Market of Karwan Bazar capital. The price of loose
semolina was BDT 60. Additionally, a two-kilogram packet of flour was BDT 110.
Last month, flour was BDT 38-40 per kilogram. This indicates that flour prices
have increased by BDT 5-7 per kilogram over a month, even though global wheat
prices have been on a downward trend during this time.
Analysts find this situation unusual. They state that the
rising price of rice is now causing an increase in flour prices as well.
Therefore, the government needs to implement effective measures for market
monitoring in the interest of consumers. Market stakeholders are also raising
questions about whether there is any oversight at the import level. However,
according to business owners, the increase in flour prices is partly due to a decline
in the sale of bran.
According to the World Bank's pink sheet data, the price
of wheat rose to 381 dollars per ton in 2022 due to the Russia-Ukraine war. It
then began to decline. In July-September last year, the global market price for
wheat was 298 dollars per ton. By the April-June quarter of this year, the
price had dropped to 237 dollars per ton. In July, it fell further by 19
dollars to 218 dollars; in August, the price was just over 205 dollars per ton.
This indicates a continuous decrease in wheat prices. It takes about two months
for imported wheat to arrive in the country. Based on this timeline, the impact
of the reduced prices in the global market should be felt in the local market
by early October. However, the situation in the market is quite the opposite.
In this regard, agricultural economist Dr. Jahangir Alam
Khan told Bonik Barta, “The price of rice is high in the market. People are
consuming flour as a substitute for rice, which is why flour prices are also
rising. However, the global wheat price has continuously decreased for the past
eight or nine months due to increased wheat production worldwide. Yet, there is
no oversight at the import level. The government must look after consumer
interests and strengthen market monitoring.”
The demand for wheat in the country is 7 million tons, of
which 1 million tons is produced domestically. The rest is imported. According
to the Food Ministry, 6.6 million tons of wheat were imported in the 2023-24
fiscal year. There should be a surplus wheat stock when domestically produced
wheat is added to the imports. As of Friday (October 4), government warehouses
held more than 4 lakh 70 thousand tons of wheat. This indicates that there is
no shortage in supply. Nevertheless, the price of this second most important
food item in the country continues to rise.
Business owners say that some large importers are facing
difficulties in importing wheat. The changed government policies have created
concerns about stagnation in their business activities, affecting smaller
traders.
Nitaigonj is one of the main wholesale markets for flour
in Narayanganj. Sheikh Wazed Ali Babul, a former president of the Nitaigonj
Flour and Atta Traders Association, told Bonik Barta, “If the business of large
importers is disrupted, it could create an imbalance in the market. This
concern is contributing to a slight increase in flour prices. In that case, the
government needs to increase its stockpiles.” He claims that market monitoring
is functioning normally.
In this regard, Sonjay Dey, the owner of Messrs Malti
Store in Chattogram, stated, “The international wheat market has been stable
for a long time. However, companies are not reducing the prices of flour and
semolina. Some large flour mills have increased their prices. Nevertheless, the
prices of loose flour and semolina remain stable.”
Major suppliers of flour in the country do not see any
supply shortages. However, they believe that the decreasing price of bran is
influencing the price of flour. In this regard, Shafiul Athar Toslim, director
of Tiki Group, told Bonik Barta, “Even though India is not exporting wheat, it
is dumping bran. Since it is the off-season, the price of bran has decreased,
which is somewhat affecting the price of flour. This is because when bran
warehouses become full, we are forced to halt flour production.”
Regarding the recent Israel-Iran conflict, Biswajit Saha,
director of City Group, expressed concerns about potential increases in wheat
prices in the international market, stating, “It is unclear whether any ships
will be available. Therefore, it seems that no one will want to come.”
Market observers do not see signs that the government
aims to fulfill people's expectations of lower product prices. They argue that
the same businesses remain outside the rules and regulations even after the
government changes.
SM Nazer Hossain, Vice President of the Consumer
Association of Bangladesh (CAB), told Bonik Barta, “For the past 15 years,
businesses have been beyond reach, and the same situation persists today. Therefore,
while businesses are always ready to increase prices, there’s never any news
regarding reducing them. Those who are supposed to monitor the market have also
failed. Market monitoring is not happening. There is a lack of accountability,
causing prices to rise for all products, including eggs and chickens. We see no
enforcement of the law.”