In monetary
value, Bangladesh has the highest bilateral trade with China, the United
States, and India. Among these, exports are highest in the United States, while
imports are more significant from China and India. Although there have been
fluctuations in import and export volumes in some years, overall trade with
these countries has increased for Bangladesh over the past two decades. An
analysis by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) indicates that during this period,
Bangladesh's trade growth with the United States and China surpassed that of
neighboring India.
Trade experts say that only Western countries played a
significant role in Bangladesh's export market two decades ago. The United
States has had a significant role in bilateral trade with Bangladesh as an
individual country. Over the past decade, there has been some diversification
in the export market, leading to increased trade with China and India. Although
exports to China have increased slightly, imports from that country have risen
significantly. Trade with India has also grown in imports and exports, but a
significant portion occurs informally, which is not reflected in official trade
statistics. For these reasons, in terms of growth, Bangladesh's trade with the
United States and China has surpassed that with India.
Recently, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) published an
evaluation report titled "Evaluation of ADB Support for the South Asia
Subregional Economic Cooperation Program, 2011-23." The report indicates
that from 2001 to 2012, Bangladesh's trade growth with the United States was
137 percent, while with China, 667 percent, and with India, 373 percent. This
means that although trade growth with the United States was higher during this
period, it was lower than in China and higher than in India. Meanwhile,
Bangladesh's trade growth with the United Kingdom during this time was 228
percent. Although there was trade growth with Bhutan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, the
volume was minimal.
The ADB report also provides an analysis of trade from
2012 to 2022. According to this analysis, Bangladesh's trade growth with the
United States over the past decade was 198 percent, while trade growth with
China was 230 percent and with India was 184 percent. This means that
Bangladesh experienced higher trade growth with the United States and China
during this period than India. However, trade growth with Bhutan over the last
decade was negative. While there was some trade growth with Nepal and Sri
Lanka, the volume of imports and exports with these countries was very low.
Mohammad Selim Uddin, Secretary of the Ministry of
Commerce, told Bonik Barta when asked for comments, "I have asked our
Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) to conduct an analysis. We must understand the
nature, markets, and products involved in trade with various countries over the
past few years. It will be appropriate to provide detailed comments once we
have the analyses."
According to statistics from the Bangladesh Bank, in the
fiscal year 2022-23, trade between Bangladesh and the United States amounted to
10.6 billion dollars. During the same period, trade with China was nearly 18
billion dollars, while trade with India was 11.2 billion dollars.
Trade analysts say that Bangladesh's export trade is
primarily centered around ready-made garments. In contrast to this export, many
raw materials must be imported. Bangladesh imports raw materials from China and
India while exporting goods mainly to Western markets, particularly the United
States. Although a large quantity of raw materials is imported from China, the
export of goods to China is minimal. Additionally, while Bangladesh imports
goods from India, the volume is less than that from China. A significant
portion of trade with India occurs through informal channels. Due to a lack of
product diversification, the growth of exports to China is also negligible,
which has not significantly impacted overall trade growth.
Professor Mustafizur Rahman, a distinguished Center for
Policy Dialogue fellow, told Bonik Barta, "Trade between Bangladesh and
the United States has increased. However, the US is primarily a destination for
Bangladeshi ready-made garment exports, and we do not import much from there.
We used to import from the European Union, which could have increased, but
India and China have taken that space. They have already advanced their
technology, and the quality of their products has improved. Trade has become
dynamic, allowing for quicker delivery of goods. These factors have contributed
to trade growth with both countries. China imports goods worth 2.8 trillion
dollars annually, while India imports 700 billion dollars, but we have not been
able to increase our exports to these two destinations. This reflects our
structural weaknesses."
Regarding trade with India, Mustafizur Rahman said,
"In 2011, India granted duty-free access for Bangladeshi products, which
led to an increase in our exports. While it took 48 years for our exports to
surpass one billion dollars, it only took four years to exceed 2 billion
dollars. This indicates that the duty-free and quota-free benefits have been
effective. India's capacity has also increased, with improvements in
technological capability and competitive quality. As a result, we are now importing
items that we previously sourced from Europe from India. Therefore, India has
become an import alternative or a trade diversion. Over the last decade, our
imports from India have also increased. Considering both sides, there has been
growth in trade between Bangladesh and India."
Trade experts say that exports and imports are taking
place between Bangladesh and the United States, although imports and exports
are lower. Bangladesh has a significant demand for production-oriented
industrial goods from China, especially machinery and raw materials for the
textiles and garments sector. As a result, imports from China are increasing.
In the case of India, the reality is that there are many exportable products
available in Bangladesh, while the number of exportable products in India is
limited.
Syed Ershad Ahmed, President of the American Chamber of
Commerce in Bangladesh (AmCham), told Bonik Barta, "Trade with the United
States includes exports and imports, and we benefit from a balanced trade.
However, recently both our imports and exports have decreased. Our imports from
China are quite high, which is why we are seeing more growth there. Exports to
China are very minimal. In India, there has been more informal trade than
formal trade, known as cross-border informal trade. It may seem that a lot of
business is happening, but when we gather data from various sources, we find
that much of it is not recorded. The reflection of trade through informal
channels is not being accurately captured. Therefore, it is essential to
formalize such informal business transactions with any country."
According to official Chinese data, trade between China
and Bangladesh has increased from 2 billion dollars to 28 billion dollars from
2003 to 2023, representing a growth of nearly 1,400 percent over these two
decades. Highlighting this information, Al Mamun Mirdha, Secretary General of
the Bangladesh-China Chamber of Commerce and Industry (BCCCI), told Bonik
Barta, "If we look back to before 2003, we can see that trade and growth
were much lower at that time. Since then, we have rapidly moved towards growth
driven by industrialization, and China’s market has started to open up to the
global market. Over the past two decades, there has been a surge in
industrialization, particularly in Southeast Asia. In this context, trade with
Bangladesh has increased, especially in the textiles and garments sector,
especially in importing machinery and raw materials. Overall, the global
context and Bangladesh's demand have significantly contributed to the increase
in trade with China over the past two decades."
Dewan Sultan Ahmed, Treasurer of the India-Bangladesh Chamber of Commerce and Industry (IBCCI), claims that trade growth between Bangladesh and India has increased compared to before. He told Bonik Barta, "Our trade growth with India is greater than before. The problem is that our export basket is small, reflected in trade growth. The reality is that India can supply us with goods in a way that we cannot reciprocate. Our exports to India are mainly ready-made garments. The growth situation is better now compared to two years ago. If we can improve our service sector, India's trade picture could improve. If we cannot achieve this, we will always lag in trade growth with that country. Another reason is the informal trade between Bangladesh and India. This type of trade is causing a loss of about 20-25 percent in potential growth."