A
last-minute Republican effort to award Nebraska's five Electoral College votes
on a winner-take-all basis - a change that would help Donald
Trump's odds of winning the White House - appeared doomed on
Monday, after a key Republican lawmaker said he opposed the proposal despite
lobbying from Trump's allies.
State
Senator Mike McDonnell said in a statement that he would not support altering
Nebraska's current system, which splits its electoral votes by congressional
district. Democrat Kamala Harris, Trump's
opponent in the Nov. 5
election, is slightly favored to win one electoral vote from
Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, which includes Omaha.
A bill to
change the system would require 33 votes out of 49 seats in the legislature.
Republicans control exactly 33 seats, which means they cannot afford even a
single defection with Democrats united in opposition.
"I will
not change my long-held position and will oppose any attempted changes to our
electoral college system before the 2024 election," McDonnell said in a
statement, noting that the election is only 43 days away.
In an
election expected to be among the closest in U.S. history, every electoral vote
will count. Unlike many countries, the U.S. president is not elected by the
national popular vote; instead, each state awards Electoral College votes in
proportion to its population to the winner of that state. Maine and Nebraska
are the only states that split their electoral votes.
With seven
battleground states likely to determine the election as their voting
preferences can swing either to Republicans or Democrats, Nebraska's 2nd
district vote looms large. For instance, if Harris won the Rust Belt states of
Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, while Trump captured the Sun Belt states
of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina - an entirely plausible
scenario, based on polling - the Nebraska vote would determine whether Harris
won 270-268 or whether the race ended up a 269-269 tie.
If the
Electoral College is tied, the U.S. House of Representatives selects the
winner, with each state delegation getting a single vote - a scenario that
would likely favor Trump.
Trump's
allies had pushed Nebraska Republicans to consider changing the electoral
system. U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican who is close
to Trump, met with Nebraska lawmakers last week to discuss the proposal.
The Trump
campaign did not respond to a request for comment on Monday, but in a post on
his Truth Social site, Trump called McDonnell a "grandstander" and
vowed to win the Omaha-based electoral vote in November.
Trump won
all five of Nebraska's electoral votes in 2016, but Democrat Joe Biden took the
2nd district's electoral vote in 2020.
The Harris
campaign referred a request for comment to the Nebraska Democratic Party, which
did not respond.
McDonnell
was elected as a Democrat but switched parties in April after the state
Democratic Party censured him for his anti-abortion stances. He said he would
encourage lawmakers to put the Electoral College question on the ballot in
2025, allowing voters to decide.
Nebraska
Governor Jim Pillen, a Republican, has said he backs the proposed change and
would be willing to call a special legislative session if there are clearly 33
votes in favor.