The
national grid receives 2,590 million cubic feet of gas daily, with 1,002
million cubic feet, or 39 percent, coming from the Chevron-operated Bibiyana
gas field. However, the proven reserves of this largest gas source for the
national grid are nearly exhausted. Experts warn that if the gas supply from
Bibiyana ceases, it could severely compromise the country’s energy and economic
security, posing a significant risk to the interim government.
Based
on the proven and probable reserve estimates, Bibiyana was initially thought to
hold about six trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas. However, more than six TCF has
already been extracted. Last year, Chevron reported an additional 481 billion
cubic feet (BCF) of gas reserves in Bangladesh to the U.S. Securities and
Exchange Commission. According to Petrobangla, this reserve also comes from
Bibiyana. Their latest assessment shows that most of this additional gas has
already been extracted, leaving the field’s reserves close to depletion.
In
addition to domestically produced gas, the national grid is supposed to receive
1,100 million cubic feet of liquefied natural gas (LNG) daily. However, this
supply is entirely import-dependent. The two floating storage and
regasification units (FSRUs) that manage LNG imports have faced operational
issues, with one being out of service for nearly three and a half months. As a
result, only 550 million cubic feet of LNG has been supplied daily to the grid.
Despite the terminal resuming operations, LNG supply has not increased due to
the lack of imports, putting further pressure on the country’s industries,
power generation, and fertilizer production.
Preliminary
estimates of Bibiyana’s gas initially in place (GIIP) indicate a total reserve
of 8,383 BCF. However, not all of this gas is recoverable. According to
geologists, about 70 percent of the total reserves in such gas fields are
typically recoverable based on the gas recovery factor.
There
has been no confirmation of any additional large gas reserves at Bibiyana, and
neither the Energy Division nor Petrobangla has announced any new discoveries.
However, experts believe that if another 1-2 TCF of recoverable gas is found,
it could significantly alter the current gas crisis in the country’s energy
sector.
Speaking
anonymously, a senior official from Petrobangla told Bonik Barta, “Chevron
submitted a report to Petrobangla regarding gas reserves, which included some
reserve information. However, it is not a large amount. The report has been
sent to the Energy Division, but no response has been received yet.”
According
to data from the Hydrocarbon Unit, Bibiyana gas field has a proven reserve of
5,755 billion cubic feet (BCF). No additional information on new reserves at
Bibiyana has been released. However, Chevron’s 2023 annual report submitted to
the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission stated that their reserve
management increased gas reserves in Bangladesh by 481 BCF. While the report
did not specifically name the gas field, a reliable source at Petrobangla
confirmed that this reserve belongs to Bibiyana. Based on this, Bibiyana’s
total reserves are estimated at 6,236 BCF. As of June this year, 5,975 BCF had
already been extracted, with an additional 87 BCF expected to be extracted
between July and September. By the end of this month, a total of 6,062 BCF will
have been extracted, leaving approximately 174 BCF remaining.
Energy
experts indicate that at the current rate of production, Bibiyana can continue
supplying gas for only one to two more years.
Currently,
the national grid receives 2,590 million cubic feet of gas daily, with over
1,000 million cubic feet supplied by Bibiyana. Chevron is working to maintain
consistent production, but there is no immediate alternative to Bibiyana’s gas
for the national grid. Experts warn that if production decreases in the next
couple of years, it could lead to a collapse in the country’s gas supply
management.
Energy
expert and BUET Professor M Tamim told Bonik Barta, “If production at Bibiyana
decreases or halts suddenly within the next two to three years, the country’s
gas supply management will face a major crisis. Petrobangla has no alternative
to such a large supply capacity, and the country may have to rely more heavily
on imports to cope with the situation.”
The
suspension of the Quick Enhancement of Energy Supply Act has also hindered rapid
LNG imports. However, Petrobangla officials are optimistic that the crisis will
ease soon.
Petrobangla’s
Director, Engineer Kamruzzaman Khan, told Bonik Barta, “Both LNG terminals are
now operational, but due to insufficient LNG supply for both, only one terminal
is being utilized at the moment. From October 5-6, we expect to supply LNG
through both terminals.”
To
expand operations in the Sylhet region, Chevron signed three agreements with
Petrobangla in October 2022. These agreements granted Chevron new areas within
the Bibiyana gas field. The company also extended the gas purchase and sale
agreements for the Moulvibazar and Jalalabad gas fields. Currently, the
agreements for Jalalabad and Bibiyana fields are valid until 2034, while the
Moulvibazar field agreement extends until 2038. As part of efforts to increase
gas production, Chevron drilled an evaluation well (Bibiyana-27) at Bibiyana
last year, though the results from this well are yet to be disclosed.
Experts
believe that proper maintenance and management of Bibiyana could lead to an
increase in gas reserves. They stress the need for further drilling and more
comprehensive assessments of recoverable reserves in the field. Untapped areas
of the Bibiyana gas field may yield additional gas if new drilling activities
are undertaken.
Energy
expert and geologist Professor Badrul Imam told Bonik Barta, “It cannot be ruled
out that the initial reserve estimates could increase over time. Before
extraction begins, there is one type of estimate, but it may change once
production starts. This can happen with any gas field.”
The
gas crisis in the country is worsening, severely affecting industries, power
plants, and fertilizer factories. Industrial entrepreneurs, especially those in
large-scale production, are facing significant challenges. Large industries
account for 68 percent of total employment in the country’s manufacturing
sector, using 63 percent of raw materials and 56 percent of electricity and
fuel. Among these, the ceramics and textile sectors are suffering the most. In
some instances, production losses in ceramics factories have exceeded 20
percent, leading to the wastage of substantial raw materials. The textile
sector is operating at only 50 percent of its production capacity due to the
gas shortage, causing uncertainty in meeting delivery deadlines for buyers.
Various industry associations have appealed to Petrobangla for uninterrupted
gas supply. Entrepreneurs also claim that the low average PSI of gas is
damaging the advanced machinery in their factories.
The
electricity sector is similarly grappling with a major crisis. According to the
Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB), the country’s average demand for
electricity, day and night combined, is nearly 15,000 megawatts. Due to
inadequate gas supply, about half of the gas-based power plants, which
collectively generate around 12,500 megawatts, are currently idle. There are
also shortages in coal and oil based power plants, exacerbating the countrywide
load shedding.
In
addition, the production of the four state-owned fertilizer factories has been
disrupted. Two of these factories have already ceased operations. Without
uninterrupted gas supply, it will be impossible to provide fertilizer to
farmers on time. Officials have stated that this year’s fertilizer production
is expected to fall short by 350,000 tons, requiring the government to spend an
additional BDT 18 billion to cover the deficit.