The
11th national parliamentary election was one of the most controversial in
Bangladesh’s history. The election took place on December 30, 2018. At that
time, accusations arose that ballot boxes were filled the night before the vote
with the help of the police. The issue sparked widespread criticism both
domestically and internationally. At that time, Japan’s Ambassador to Bangladesh,
Ito Naoki, expressed that he had heard that police officials filled ballot
boxes the night before. This was something he had never heard of in any other
country. Even the then-Chief Election Commissioner, KM Nurul Huda, remarked in
March, while advocating for the introduction of electronic voting machines
(EVM), “If implemented, there will be no opportunity for filling ballots at
night.”
Following
this election, the Awami League government took office again in January 2019.
According to media reports from that time, incidents of extrajudicial killings,
enforced disappearances, and politically motivated crimes such as crossfire
rose. Various crimes, including the rise of teenage gangs, became prevalent.
Meanwhile, the economy was under pressure from irregularities, corruption, and
crimes in the banking and financial sectors, as well as the burden of hosting
hundreds of thousands of Rohingya refugees.
In
2019, the BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD) and The Asia
Foundation conducted a joint survey to assess the public’s perception of the
country’s politics, society, and economy. The survey, conducted in February and
March 2020, was published in July of the same year. According to the survey
results, in 2019, 63.6 percent of the population believed Bangladesh was
politically moving in the right direction. Moreover, 77 percent and 70.3
percent of respondents thought that Bangladesh was on the right track socially and
economically, respectively.
Despite
the various controversies surrounding the economy, politics, and social issues,
the report boosted the ruling party’s morale. At different times, BIGD’s
individual and joint research has faced criticism for allegedly favoring the
ruling party.
After
the 11th national parliamentary election, the socio-economic and political situation
in the country began to deteriorate. By 2022, all key indicators showed a
worsening trend. The average inflation rate in Dhaka reached double digits, the
banking and financial sectors were in turmoil, and billions of dollars were
being embezzled and smuggled out of the country. The reserve crisis became
increasingly severe. Repressive laws and government surveillance were curbing
freedom of expression and press freedom. In the political arena, fears grew
over issues such as enforced disappearances, vendettas, and an environment of
fear with structures such as the Aynaghor.
Amid
such an intolerant atmosphere, a 2022 survey by BIGD and The Asia Foundation revealed
that 57.5 percent of the population still believed that the country was on the
right track socially, while 38.7 percent thought otherwise. In terms of
politics, over 39 percent of respondents believed the country was moving in the
right direction. This survey was conducted from November 2022 to January 2023.
Experts
suggest that survey questions are often framed to influence the respondents'
answers, leading to confirmation bias.
Former
Monash University Malaysia School of Business lecturer, M Niaz Asadullah, told
Bonik Barta, “Survey data and the responses collected can be biased for various
reasons. The method of sample collection and selection, sample size
limitations, the way questions are formulated, and whether the answers are
binary (yes/no), rated on a scale of 0 to 100, or open-ended—all these factors
play a role. Therefore, in politically and socially sensitive matters, where
survey results may be sensationalized, additional caution is essential. In most
cases, these processes are not followed properly, often skipped for quick
opinions, which raises questions about their validity.”
Many
experts also believe the respondents’ psychological state can significantly
influence survey results. Secretary of Citizens for Good Governance (SHUJAN)
and current head of the Election Commission Reform Commission, Badiul Alam
Majumdar, told Bonik Barta, “I don’t think BIGD would manipulate the results.
Many factors depend on the circumstances. There was a culture of fear at the
time, particularly during the 2018 elections. Perhaps many respondents answered
out of fear. I don’t believe this was intentional by the researchers.”
The
tendency for BIGD’s surveys to yield results that seem to favor the ruling
party persists. On September 15, BIGD published a new survey titled ‘Pulse
Survey 2024: Public Opinions, Experiences, and Expectations’. This survey
gathered data from 2,363 men and women across all districts via telephone
interviews, focusing on public perceptions of politics and socio-economic
issues.
The
survey revealed that, considering the political situation in July and August,
71 percent believed Bangladesh was on the right track, while 12 percent
believed it was on the wrong track. Additionally, 43 percent were optimistic
about the country’s political future, while 41 percent expressed pessimism.
When asked about the future of Bangladesh’s economy, 60 percent felt it was on
the right path, whereas 27 percent thought the country was heading in the wrong
direction.
The
2024 survey also included two questions about the interim government’s tenure.
The first asked respondents which statement they agreed with: either that the
government should relinquish power as soon as elections were held, or that it
should remain in power for as long as necessary to ensure free and fair
elections. According to the results, 81 percent wanted the interim government
to stay in power for as long as necessary to complete the reforms, while 13
percent felt it should hold elections quickly and hand over power.
The
day after the survey’s release, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam
Alamgir strongly criticized it. He said at a gathering, “The survey claims 80
percent of people want this government to stay as long as it pleases. I don’t
know where they got this information, but the public will never accept it.”
When
asked to elaborate, Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir told Bonik Barta yesterday
(Friday, September 20), “People have questions about who conducted this survey
and how it was conducted. For citizens, the primary survey is the right to
vote. They have been deprived of this right for a long time. The interim
government’s main duty is to complete meaningful reforms and proceed toward
elections as quickly as possible.”
However,
BIGD Senior Research Fellow Mirza M Hassan dismissed BNP’s criticisms. He told
Bonik Barta, “BNP is reacting emotionally without fully understanding. It’s
incorrect to say that 80 percent of respondents want the government to stay as
long as it wants. Respondents were asked how long they think is necessary for
reforms, and answers varied from six months to a year, two years, or three
years. So, BNP’s claim is completely false.”
He
further explained, “In 2019, people felt the country was on a positive economic
path. By 2022, they said things had gotten worse, and by 2024, they thought it
was even worse. Social aspects are not that significant—they refer to the
absence of communal violence or major gender-based violence. What matters are
the economic and political factors. Our surveys from 2019, 2022, and 2024 show
a consistent decline in the government’s economic and political popularity.”
He
further stated, “After this movement, people have witnessed a change. The state
has transformed, reflecting the hopes and aspirations of the people. They believe
a significant change is coming. As they observe, they hope that this government
will perform well. That’s why they have given a positive rating. However, if
people later see that this government is not working effectively, they will
give a poor rating again. We hold no bias in this regard.”
Addressing
the claim that surveys are conducted to please the ruling party, Mirza M Hassan
added, “People will always have opinions when something goes against their
interests or biases. This is a professional survey, conducted objectively. Our
methods are recognized both globally and nationally. And we can even demonstrate
the methodology if needed.”
In
the 2019 survey report, the methodology for completing the process was
explained in detail. The survey included 4,096 participants, with 25 percent
from urban areas and 75 percent from rural areas. The ratio of men to women was
equal. The number of participants from each of the eight divisions was
determined based on the population ratio. The multi-stage sampling method was
used to determine the demographic distribution of the participants.
The
survey was conducted among residents of 32 districts, which were
selected through random sampling from the eight divisions. These districts were
further divided into urban and rural areas. In the same way, 48 upazilas were
randomly chosen from the 32 districts, with two unions selected from each
upazila. From these unions, two villages or neighborhoods were randomly
selected. The survey was conducted on a total of 16 individuals in each village
or neighborhood, half of whom were women and half men. In total, rural samples
were collected from 192 villages across the country, while urban samples were
collected from 64 neighborhoods.