More
than one-third of users do not consider the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics’
(BBS) data reliable, particularly in relation to inflation statistics. They
also have doubts about the credibility of other BBS data. This skepticism has
been revealed through a survey conducted by the BBS itself.
In
collaboration with the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), the
BBS conducted this survey, titled ‘User Satisfaction Survey (USS) 2024’. The
results, released last Thursday (September 26), show that a significant portion
of BBS data users do not find the organization’s statistics trustworthy, with
inflation data being the most questioned.
The
survey reveals that about one-third, or 33.16 percent of users, do not trust
BBS’s inflation statistics. Additionally, 27.44 percent of users believe the
data’s reliability is low, and 5.72 percent consider it entirely unreliable.
Over
the last two fiscal years, Bangladesh’s average inflation rate has remained
above 9 percent. However, BBS’s reported inflation figures have consistently
been called into question. Economists and analysts argue that the gap between
BBS’s inflation data and the actual rise in market prices is substantial.
Experts
claim that over the past decade and a half under the government’s continuous
rule, every institution has been politically misused. BBS, one of the
institutions most used for promoting government’s development and growth
narratives, has been accused of producing and presenting questionable
statistics on everything from population to GDP growth to the overall economy.
Even after the change in government, the credibility of the inflation data provided
by BBS remains questionable.
In
the most recent inflation report released this month, BBS showed that inflation
in August was 10.49 percent, compared to 11.66 percent in July. However, the
report also noted that within one month, food inflation dropped by more than
three percentage points. Observers have raised concerns, stating that despite
severe floods in the southeastern region and rising prices of essential goods,
a drop in inflation in August seems unusual.
Commenting
on this matter, statistical expert Zia Hasan told Bonik Barta, “There are
significant questions surrounding the country’s inflation and growth
statistics. Therefore, a commission should be formed to review these two sets
of data. They can also be verified by an independent institution because
interest rates are set based on these figures. These data are vital to maintaining
macroeconomic stability.”
According
to the survey, 33.55 percent of people find BBS data to be less reliable.
Following that, 26 percent of people are skeptical about national account
statistics, which are used to calculate GDP. Meanwhile, 25.43 percent express
doubt regarding income and poverty figures, and 24.36 percent have concerns
about international trade data. Over 23 percent of people remain uncertain
about statistics on industry, labor, and education. Overall, only 40 percent of
people think BBS data is reliable, and nearly 19 percent believe it is
comparable to other countries. However, 80 percent of users report that while
necessary data is available, it is insufficient.
The
survey further reveals that 33.55 percent of users believe BBS data is less
reliable. Additionally, 42.88 percent expressed dissatisfaction with the
frequency of BBS data publications, while 9.24 percent admitted to having no
knowledge of the matter.
The
credibility of government statistics in Bangladesh has been a long-standing
issue. The discrepancy between BBS data and information from other domestic and
international agencies only intensified during the previous Awami League
government.
Analysts
argue that there is a lack of professionalism in BBS’s handling of statistics,
and the agency’s lack of independence due to its operation under a ministry
raises further concerns. This has led to allegations of politically motivated
data manipulation. Moreover, methodological changes in long-overdue surveys
often make comparisons with previous data impossible. Analysts suggest that BBS
should not only improve its methodology but also be run by professionals in
statistics.
Dr.
Selim Raihan, Executive Director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling
(SANEM) and professor of economics at Dhaka University, echoed these concerns
to Bonik Barta stating, “There is a shortage of professional expertise within
BBS. Statisticians are not recruited. Additionally, the agency works under a
ministry, it lacks the independence needed to function effectively. As a
result, allegations of politically motivated manipulation in BBS statistics
persist. It’s time for institutional reforms at BBS, as the agency has been
neglected for too long. With a long gap, they conduct surveys on labor, food
and income-expenditure. It can be seen that due to definitional changes, the
data of the new survey cannot be compared with the previous survey. BBS should
employ professional skilled people.”
Riti
Ibrahim, former secretary of the Statistics and Information Management (SID)
Division, agrees. Speaking to Bonik Barta, she said, “There are too many
administrative cadre officials in senior positions at BBS. Statisticians need
to be appointed to these roles. Otherwise, administrative officials cannot
effectively guide the agency. Additionally, improvements in statistical methods
are necessary to restore public confidence. BBS must be transparent about its
survey methods and, if necessary, seek user feedback. Currently, most technical
committees are dominated by statisticians, but outside experts should also be
involved. It’s important to ensure that data is collected in the field. There
has been allegations that survey data is often filled out from home.”
Concerns
about the quality of BBS data are not new. The World Bank evaluates the
statistical performance of countries and publishes scores based on 25
indicators. In 2014, Bangladesh’s overall score in the Statistical Capacity
Indicator was 80 out of 100, while its methodological score was 70. However,
both scores have been declining ever since. By 2018, the overall score had
dropped to 62, and by 2020 it had further fallen to 60 which is below South
Asia’s average score of 69. Bangladesh experienced the sharpest drop in the
methodology indicator, falling from a score of 70 in 2014 to 30 in 2020.
Following
the appointment of A H M Mustafa Kamal as planning minister in 2014,
statistical discrepancies became more pronounced. A syndicate of five to six
individuals allegedly manipulated various economic indicators, including
inflation.
Asked
about the survey findings, BBS Director General Mohammad Mizanur Rahman told
Bonik Barta, “This survey was conducted to gather stakeholder opinions. We will
take note of the public’s dissatisfaction with data quality and timeliness and
address these concerns in future surveys and censuses. While we cannot resolve
these issues immediately, we will gradually incorporate this feedback into our
planning and operations.”