Bonikbarta Exclusive

More than one-third of users do not consider the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics’ (BBS) data reliable, particularly in relation to inflation statistics. They also have doubts about the credibility of other BBS data. This skepticism has been revealed through a survey conducted by the BBS itself.

In collaboration with the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), the BBS conducted this survey, titled ‘User Satisfaction Survey (USS) 2024’. The results, released last Thursday (September 26), show that a significant portion of BBS data users do not find the organization’s statistics trustworthy, with inflation data being the most questioned.

The survey reveals that about one-third, or 33.16 percent of users, do not trust BBS’s inflation statistics. Additionally, 27.44 percent of users believe the data’s reliability is low, and 5.72 percent consider it entirely unreliable.

Over the last two fiscal years, Bangladesh’s average inflation rate has remained above 9 percent. However, BBS’s reported inflation figures have consistently been called into question. Economists and analysts argue that the gap between BBS’s inflation data and the actual rise in market prices is substantial.

Experts claim that over the past decade and a half under the government’s continuous rule, every institution has been politically misused. BBS, one of the institutions most used for promoting government’s development and growth narratives, has been accused of producing and presenting questionable statistics on everything from population to GDP growth to the overall economy. Even after the change in government, the credibility of the inflation data provided by BBS remains questionable.

In the most recent inflation report released this month, BBS showed that inflation in August was 10.49 percent, compared to 11.66 percent in July. However, the report also noted that within one month, food inflation dropped by more than three percentage points. Observers have raised concerns, stating that despite severe floods in the southeastern region and rising prices of essential goods, a drop in inflation in August seems unusual.

Commenting on this matter, statistical expert Zia Hasan told Bonik Barta, “There are significant questions surrounding the country’s inflation and growth statistics. Therefore, a commission should be formed to review these two sets of data. They can also be verified by an independent institution because interest rates are set based on these figures. These data are vital to maintaining macroeconomic stability.”

According to the survey, 33.55 percent of people find BBS data to be less reliable. Following that, 26 percent of people are skeptical about national account statistics, which are used to calculate GDP. Meanwhile, 25.43 percent express doubt regarding income and poverty figures, and 24.36 percent have concerns about international trade data. Over 23 percent of people remain uncertain about statistics on industry, labor, and education. Overall, only 40 percent of people think BBS data is reliable, and nearly 19 percent believe it is comparable to other countries. However, 80 percent of users report that while necessary data is available, it is insufficient.

The survey further reveals that 33.55 percent of users believe BBS data is less reliable. Additionally, 42.88 percent expressed dissatisfaction with the frequency of BBS data publications, while 9.24 percent admitted to having no knowledge of the matter.

The credibility of government statistics in Bangladesh has been a long-standing issue. The discrepancy between BBS data and information from other domestic and international agencies only intensified during the previous Awami League government.

Analysts argue that there is a lack of professionalism in BBS’s handling of statistics, and the agency’s lack of independence due to its operation under a ministry raises further concerns. This has led to allegations of politically motivated data manipulation. Moreover, methodological changes in long-overdue surveys often make comparisons with previous data impossible. Analysts suggest that BBS should not only improve its methodology but also be run by professionals in statistics.

Dr. Selim Raihan, Executive Director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM) and professor of economics at Dhaka University, echoed these concerns to Bonik Barta stating, “There is a shortage of professional expertise within BBS. Statisticians are not recruited. Additionally, the agency works under a ministry, it lacks the independence needed to function effectively. As a result, allegations of politically motivated manipulation in BBS statistics persist. It’s time for institutional reforms at BBS, as the agency has been neglected for too long. With a long gap, they conduct surveys on labor, food and income-expenditure. It can be seen that due to definitional changes, the data of the new survey cannot be compared with the previous survey. BBS should employ professional skilled people.”

Riti Ibrahim, former secretary of the Statistics and Information Management (SID) Division, agrees. Speaking to Bonik Barta, she said, “There are too many administrative cadre officials in senior positions at BBS. Statisticians need to be appointed to these roles. Otherwise, administrative officials cannot effectively guide the agency. Additionally, improvements in statistical methods are necessary to restore public confidence. BBS must be transparent about its survey methods and, if necessary, seek user feedback. Currently, most technical committees are dominated by statisticians, but outside experts should also be involved. It’s important to ensure that data is collected in the field. There has been allegations that survey data is often filled out from home.”

Concerns about the quality of BBS data are not new. The World Bank evaluates the statistical performance of countries and publishes scores based on 25 indicators. In 2014, Bangladesh’s overall score in the Statistical Capacity Indicator was 80 out of 100, while its methodological score was 70. However, both scores have been declining ever since. By 2018, the overall score had dropped to 62, and by 2020 it had further fallen to 60 which is below South Asia’s average score of 69. Bangladesh experienced the sharpest drop in the methodology indicator, falling from a score of 70 in 2014 to 30 in 2020.

Following the appointment of A H M Mustafa Kamal as planning minister in 2014, statistical discrepancies became more pronounced. A syndicate of five to six individuals allegedly manipulated various economic indicators, including inflation.

Asked about the survey findings, BBS Director General Mohammad Mizanur Rahman told Bonik Barta, “This survey was conducted to gather stakeholder opinions. We will take note of the public’s dissatisfaction with data quality and timeliness and address these concerns in future surveys and censuses. While we cannot resolve these issues immediately, we will gradually incorporate this feedback into our planning and operations.”